The 2012 congressional elections and the 2016 presidential election showed that the geographic concentration of Democrats can lead to defeat, despite winning the popular vote.[1] With regards to 2012, part of this was due to GOP gerrymandering in the wake of redistricting in 2010 and 2000. In 2016, voter restrictions and voter roll purges likely played a large role in preventing eligible Democrats from voting in swing states.

GOP gerrymandering and voter purges are the direct result of Democrats failing to control state legislatures to protect voting rights and to protect against GOP-controlled redistricting. Republicans currently control 4,136 state legislative seats out of 7,383 possible. The GOP controls 31 state houses.[2] In addition, Republicans have 26 state trifectas (both legislative chambers and the governor’s office).[3] Democrats control 13 state legislatures and hold only 8 state trifectas.[4] During President Obama’s administration, Democrats lost 958 state legislative seats, the most under any modern administration dating back to FDR.[5] This lack of power, combined with the extreme geographic concentrations of Democratic voters, translates directly to an inability to enact voter protections and to prevent GOP gerrymandering, compounding Democratic powerlessness.

The failure of Democrats to win and hold seats in Congress is a direct result of not winning at the state level. Winning at the state level provides tangible benefits necessary to the future success of the party:

• Redistricting after the 2020 Census
• Protect voting rights
• Expand early voting opportunities
• Develop next generation of Democratic leaders

2020 represents the best chance for Democrats to take back the Presidency and the Senate, but, as 2016 has shown, unless Democrats focus on state legislatures in the interim, winning the popular vote will not necessarily ensure electoral success. If Democrats are not in charge of several important state legislatures in 2020, then it is a distinct possibility they will cease to function as a legitimate national political party by 2030.

That means Democrats must refocus on state legislatures now, in 2018. 

[1] See 2012 House election, http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/feb/19/steny-hoyer/steny-hoyer-house-democrats-won-majority-2012-popu/.

[2] The GOP controls 37 state senates and 31 state houses.

[3] Nebraska is the only state with a unicameral legislature, but is included as a GOP trifecta.

[4] Democrats control 13 state senates and 18 state houses.

[5] See Changes in state legislative seats during the Obama presidency, https://ballotpedia.org/Changes_in_state_legislative_seats_during_the_Obama_presidency.